The outlook for the chasing pack is bleak, writes Tumaini Carayol, as Novak Djokovic aims for a clean sweep of slams in 2016, starting with the Australian Open.
Rafael Nadal
had reason to believe that everything was going well in 2016. After the
abject nightmare that was most of 2015, he had done everything right:
he finished the year strongly, he abjured the customary rest after a
long season in favour of toiling to fix every last flaw in his game. At
the turn of the year, he stole to victory in the Abu Dhabi exhibition
and worked his way to the final of his first official tournament in
Doha. Things were optimistic, things were hopeful and things seemed to
be on the up.
But in this age of Novak Djokovic, for the rest of the field the
reality is that optimism is dead; hope evaporates one baseline-kissing
Djokovic return at a time and the only thing on the up is the rising
glass ceiling separating Djokovic further and further from the rest of
the field.
If Nadal or anyone else had forgotten these new rules of men's
tennis in the new year, they were swiftly reminded as Djokovic stepped
on court for their duel in last week’s final in Doha. Just 73 minutes
later, Nadal laid in scattered pieces across the court after an
exhibition of pure violence from Djokovic. Fourteen-time slam champions
are not supposed to be dismembered and destroyed in such a manner, but
if there is one thing we have learnt from Djokovic in recent years,
it’s that he cares little for the rule of law that preceded him.
This is where the ATP stands at the beginning of a new slam
season. When Djokovic arrived at the Australian Open last year, there
were still a few questions to answer after his loss to Kei Nishikori
at the US Open in 2014. This time around, the only debate to be had is
whether the Serb will travel the full distance and win the impossible
Grand Slam, or if he’ll have settle for a mere three or two victories.
The draw has only further accentuated this feeling. If the main
debate circulating at the start of 2016 is precisely how many million
matches Djokovic will win, then the second is who on earth could
possibly be the person to stop him if he didn’t? The answers on paper
are clear.
Stan Wawrinka’s
God-like Roland Garros performance and their head-to-head slam history
suggest he easily has the best shot if they meet. His ability to catch
fire was once a rare find, but now seems almost a sure bet at some point
this year. However, this fortnight the Swiss has been deposited into
the most difficult section of the draw, with in-form big
serve-and-forehanders Jack Sock and Milos Raonic waiting for him even before the possible Nadal and Andy Murray-shaped
roadblocks. Wawrinka could easily flit into a white-hot run and burn
these obstacles to dust, or he could just as easily flicker out.
In reality, Roger Federer
has been Djokovic’s solitary legitimate rival over the past few years.
But even then, there is a limit to the depth of their recent encounters.
Federer has pushed Djokovic and snatched numerous victories with his
recent unrelenting commitment to ending points as early as is humanly
possible, but the patterns are also clear. Against Djokovic, Federer’s
ballistic play is neutralised by slower courts, in the bigger matches
and across five sets. If they were to meet in the semi-finals next week,
all three boxes would be ticked.
Then there is Murray, whose off season was so short after the
Hopman Cup that he hasn’t even yet undertaken his pre-season training.
Beyond that, even in one of the best full seasons Murray has pieced
together in his entire career, the gulf between Djokovic and the Scot
was the size of a canyon. As usual, Murray’s results against Djokovic
have left people suggesting that he should attack more and take more
risks. The problem is simply that when Murray has tried to take his
matches against Djokovic into his own hands, Djokovic has almost always
left him in a similar state to Nadal this year.
Every single arrow appears to point to another overwhelmingly
dominant tournament and year for Djokovic, but future opponents will
point out that it won’t always be easy. Despite the fleeting moments
when Djokovic dominated as he did against Nadal in Doha, 2015 was
difficult and it will be remembered for the speedbumps and the crises he
managed to avert and conquer.
It was the year Djokovic raged. It was the year he screamed more
foul Serbian rants towards his team than ever before, the year he
executed racquets with grim efficiency, and the year he would sit down
after unsuccessful sets and his hands would violently shake as he tried
to carry bottles of water to his mouth. The season was defined by
Djokovic’s incredible mentality that allowed him to almost
instantaneously bounce back from these moments and channel his rage into
performing the perfect point that transformed the complexion of any
given match.
Thus, for the next two weeks, the best bet that the field has is
to assume that Djokovic still remains a sentient human being. They have
to pray that the anger won’t always be transfigured into pitch perfect
motivation, instead boiling over and hindering him, and they have to
hope that the shadow of last season’s success will leave him more
susceptible to the crises he will surely meet. Beyond that, Djokovic has
ensured that they don’t have much hope left.
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